During this week the US dollar had a slight increase regarding last week’s closing data. Local Peruvian traders and foreign traders made some very specific purchases in the foresight of the future short-term changes on US monetary policies made by the US Federal Reserve.
According to Reuters, at a $428-million volume traded the dollar increase its rate regarding the Peruvian Sol (PEN) 0.092%, passing from S/.3.241 to S/.3.254 on this week’s closing time. The dollar rate at Lima’s exchange was set an S/.3.24 to buy and S/.3.26 to sell. This data confirms the dynamic trend for the US currency.
According a Peruvian local bank senior trader, the dollar has sustained a more stable trend as compared to last week’s trend, and it is possible for an increase to happen in the days to come. Local Peruvian banks and other operator have intention to sell, not only with the news coming from USA but given the income tax payment that caused bigger sales.
Possible and recurrent changes in FED policies, such as the rise in short-term interest rates with an increase of 0.75% and 1%, have added up to the best indicators of employment of the US economy. This fact generated elevated orders from providers for third month in a row. Consequently, the commercial deficit reduced more than estimated in February.
The current local situation of income tax payment period in Soles is crating the perfect environment for the dollar to recover regarding PEN. However, last March 31st or better known as the close of the first quarter, the USD-PEN dropped 3.22% due to external factors. This is a careful currency policy to cope with the uncertainty generated by Trump-Economics, which influenced directly on the performance.
According to experts, the prospects for this exchange rate are uncertain. The behavior will follow FED parameters and US economy’s employment and consumption data. This will translate into having positive indicators.
On the other hand, Peru’s central bank Banco Central de Reserva is in expectation given the wide margin between the Sol and the dollar in the short term. Specialists also point out that the dollar will not face many obstacles at least up to mid-year, even though Peru’s BCR may not have much to intervene in the stock market for 2017.