According to what the Central Reserve Bank of Peru reported, through the Survey of Macroeconomic Expectations of July 2017, the current situation and perspectives of the areas of economic agents, such as households and companies, have been much more optimistic in the last month in comparison to June, this is, an increasing in sales and employability, as well as the recruitment of staff.
It stands out in the poll, over all, the opinion of the microeconomic sector of the Peruvian private business area, which nearest scenario, not only in the political environment hostile to the current Government, it is auspicious for the Peruvian economy.
The poll, the indicator number 50 represents a more neutral view and over 50 can denote an optimistic stretch of hope, while less than 50 denotes a pessimistic opinion.
The poll has pointed out some improvements in the discriminants as the areas of the level of sales that ranked last month at 56.3 versus 54.1 in June: in the section of purchase orders concerning last month, it denoted in the month of the year an index of 54.3 against 52,0 in June; the expectation of the sector in a twelve-month period with 65.3 in June against 62.6 in June.
The investigation stressed that the expectation for hiring staff for three months improved slightly in July with 51.0 against 50.9 of last the month.
In addition, four of the seven indicators fell in July. However, not all discriminants are kept above 50, right in the optimistic sector.
Macroeconomic situation and indicators
Regarding the estimates of growth for the current and next year, the consensus of the investigation of BCR, which included economic analysts, banking analysts such as banks, stock exchanges, insurance companies and funds as well as analysts of non-financial companies revealed that it is expected that the economy advances a range of 2.5% and 3.0% for 2017 and 3.7% for the upcoming year.
The most optimistic data were given by experts from the business platform that calculated that this GDP close at 3.0% and 3.7% in 2018. However, this sector of the spectrum went from an estimated GDP growth of 3.2% in 2017 the past May 28, to a projected 3.0% on June, 28 and the same figure for July 28.
The consensus among economic analysts was moderate according to changes in their estimates, they passed from a GDP projected on May 28 from 2.5% to a slight increase of 2.6% on June, 28, to retake the estimate of 2.5% by July, 28.
Regarding the price of the dollar at the Forex market, the main parties involved in the survey indicated that the average of the estimates between S/ 3.30 and S/ 3.31 per unit; for 2018, the survey showed S/ 3.36 and S/ 3.40 per American dollar.