Important agency of risk ratings puts 2019 as a limit for the signature of the NAFTA

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Important agency of risk ratings puts 2019 as a limit for the signature of the NAFTA

TLCAN: Canadá, México y Estados Unidos

Moody’s is the agency of risk ratings that the analysts guide themselves more, for that reason it explained that it is very probable that the NAFTA will be reformed in the 2019; instead of the 2018 as projected previously, in addition it commented that the delay of this company/signature in the NAFTA would not affect the profile of Mexico.

At the moment, the negotiations of the NAFTA in where the Mexico countries are seen, the involved Canada and United States this constitutes a commercial relation annuls that has an invoice of 1,2 trillions of dollars and from August of the 2017 has been modernized by the request that the president made present of the United States, that according to a source that were consulted on the subject he looks for to extend the benefits in the agreement for the United States and threatened leaving recently if he does not obtain it.

On the other hand, Moody’s, through an informative report and its channels indicated that the parts would reach an agreement for next year 2019, this is based on the announcements that the administration did of the country directed by Trump.

In addition, it commented that the considerations of the policy could add an element of uncertainty to the negotiation due to the next presidential elections that will be carried out in the Aztec country and a limited impact in the profile of the credit of the country like a consequence of the delayed agreement is expected very.

The political surroundings in Mexico

For July 1 of the present year, Mexico will vote for a new president, in electoral elections where him main favorite is the candidate Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador who is progressive and veteran in the electoral jousts of the economy, that along with Brazil, is one of greatest of the region.

Enrique Peña Nieto, current president of Mexico

Enrique Peña Nieto, current president of Mexico

According to Moody’s, even if the negotiations were interrupted in the measurement that are approached the celebration of the elections of Mexico, hope that these are reinitiated at some time of the future with an agreement that is obtained in the updated version of the NAFTA, the this most probable is than it becomes in the 2019.

Regarding the effects that it will have on the economy, the same agency commented that the new scene bases is the commitment of the three signatory countries in the agreement which would limit the uncertainty, endorsing the short term growth and the different perspective from investment.

Another one of the visions that offers Moody’s is on the oil country Venezuela, that according to the report reduced the qualification of credit from this country to “C” from “Caa3” and commented that the decrease of the payment capacity generates more expectations for losses for the investors on sovereign bonds of the country. In addition, it comments that it is continued breaking the chain of the payments of the obligations.

Also the limitations to the capacities that Venezuela has to manage to make a reconstruction of the debts by the sanctions that have imposed the United States and other countries could affect the investors to accept more instruments for the exchange of the obligations, this could cause many more losses.

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